Economics & Development

Ratings for the Economic and Environmental Rehabilitation of the Niger River Project for Mali were as follows: outcomes were moderately satisfactory, and the Bank's performance was also moderately satisfactory. Some lessons learned included: mobilizing local communities, third-party relay, and using innovative digital tools, which are key elements for successful implementation and monitoring of projects in a high-risk security context. At the start of the project, there was a lack of synergy between the implementing agencies, and no clear strategic priorities were defined for the sector. Despite identifying these risks during preparation, the lack of alignment and coordination among key stakeholders and the absence of a well-developed sector strategy hampered project achievements. They may hinder the project’s long-term sustainability. Recognizing that the challenges posed by the volatile political environment made achieving consensus and ensuring stability in institutional relationships difficult, adaptive management became even more critical to staying engaged with the client and helping define the agenda. This highlights the need for flexible, adaptive planning and stakeholder engagement strategies that can accommodate political complexities while still prioritizing the creation of strong, coordinated frameworks to support the project’s objectives. The project strengthened the capacity of ABFN to monitor climate change impacts, which directly supported the Niger Basin Climate Resilience Investment Plan. Integrating environmental monitoring with transport planning ensured that navigation routes were optimized for efficiency and sustainability. The World Bank teams from the transport and environment sectors worked together to help the project better integrate both aspects, ensuring that environmental sustainability was considered in transport planning and that transport improvements supported ecological goals. This comprehensive approach achieved immediate project goals and laid the groundwork for long-term sustainable development and resilience in the region.

Longitudinal surveys are an invaluable source for analyzing the current state of and changes in human populations over time. However, maintaining the accuracy of estimates from a panel sample becomes more difficult as the length of the panel survey increases. Key concerns are the lack of sample representativeness, due to the sample erosion caused by deaths and movers and the impact of new births, and migration flows. Moreover, sample fatigue introduces an increasing measurement error. Correct design, implementation, and use of a panel survey considers a set of methods to deal with these problems at different stages of the statistical process: the sampling design, the data collection, and the estimation. This paper focuses on the case of panels with a rotating sample design. This case represents a powerful hybrid solution for facing the impact of panel dynamics on sample representativeness. Empirically, the paper focuses on the estimation procedures. Using data from the Uganda National Panel Survey, the longest Living Standards Measurement Study panel survey, it experimentally evaluates the suggested technique. In summary, the findings show that the calibrated generalized weight share method base estimator yields individual-level statistics that appear to be more accurate than those produced by the current Uganda National Panel Survey estimator. Additionally, the calibrated generalized weight share method base cross-sectional estimates on the transition matrix show a generally higher degree of stability when the sample is changed compared to the current Uganda National Panel Survey estimates.

This paper documents the life cycle of formal and informal plants using five waves of the Mexican establishment census. Formal plants begin operations with three times more workers than informal plants and exhibit faster growth rates. Throughout their life cycle, formal establishments more than double their size, while informal plants increase their size by only 77%. A general equilibrium model is developed to quantify the aggregate economic losses stemming from these growth rate disparities. In the model, plants grow through productivity investments, and informality emerges from incomplete enforcement. In equilibrium, informal plants exhibit flatter life cycle profiles to avoid detection and taxation. Model parameters are calibrated to match key properties of plant size distribution and the life cycle of plants in Mexico. Quantitative results indicate that a revenue-neutral full enforcement increases aggregate output and the overall growth rate by sixteen and twenty-five percent relative to the benchmark, respectively.