Economics & Development

Human capital - people’s knowledge, skills, and health - drives productivity and growth. The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures the human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over their working life, extending the original HCI by incorporating tertiary education and work experience. This brief summarizes Albania's HCI+ score and its performance in building human capital.

Burundi’s 2025 recovery was real but masked by severe macroeconomic imbalances. Early signs of stabilization are encouraging, but much of the improvement reflects favorable external conditions. Disentangling policy gains from external tailwinds is essential to avoid overstating durability. Looking ahead, external shocks threaten to reverse recent gains. Sustaining this momentum is now the central challenge, particularly as the escalation of the Middle East conflict in February 2026 has pushed oil prices above US$90 per barrel and raised fertilizer costs by about 30 percent, renewing pressure on inflation, the import bill, and agricultural input affordability. Consolidating these early gains will require deeper and faster implementation of the stabilization agenda, with appropriate sequencing, rather than a change in policy direction. This Economic Update presents two reform pathways. A High Growth Reform (HGR) scenario assumes sustained improvements in governance and productivity, with growth averaging 6.0 percent, mining reaching 14 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2060, and per capita income nearly quadrupling to US$1,132 (lower-middle-income threshold). A more aspirational Vision 2040-60 scenario aligns with the government’s long-term agenda but requires unprecedented investment and productivity gains, projecting per capita income of US$12,756 by 2060. Under business-as-usual, per capita income declines and poverty deepens. The gap between these alternative trajectories is defined entirely by policy choices, starting with effective MSP implementation.

Human capital - people’s knowledge, skills, and health - drives productivity and growth. The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures the human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over their working life, extending the original HCI by incorporating tertiary education and work experience. This brief summarizes Mexico’s HCI+ score and its performance in building human capital.

Human capital - people’s knowledge, skills, and health - drives productivity and growth. The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures the human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over their working life, extending the original HCI by incorporating tertiary education and work experience. This brief summarizes Montenegro’s HCI+ score and its performance in building human capital.

Human capital - people’s knowledge, skills, and health - drives productivity and growth. The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures the human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over their working life, extending the original HCI by incorporating tertiary education and work experience. This brief summarizes Moldova’s HCI+ score and its performance in building human capital.

Human capital - people’s knowledge, skills, and health - drives productivity and growth. The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures the human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over their working life, extending the original HCI by incorporating tertiary education and work experience. This brief summarizes Germany’s HCI+ score and its performance in building human capital.

Human capital - people’s knowledge, skills, and health - drives productivity and growth. The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures the human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over their working life, extending the original HCI by incorporating tertiary education and work experience. This brief summarizes Estonia’s HCI+ score and its performance in building human capital.

Human capital - people’s knowledge, skills, and health - drives productivity and growth. The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures the human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over their working life, extending the original HCI by incorporating tertiary education and work experience. This brief summarizes Cyprus’s HCI+ score and its performance in building human capital.

Human capital - people’s knowledge, skills, and health - drives productivity and growth. The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures the human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over their working life, extending the original HCI by incorporating tertiary education and work experience. This brief summarizes Croatia’s HCI+ score and its performance in building human capital.

The war in the Middle East represents a historic shock to commodity markets, resulting in the largest oil supply loss on record. Assuming the most acute phase of commodity trade disruptions ends shortly and shipping volumes gradually return to near prewar levels by October, average commodity prices are projected to rise by 16 percent in 2026, the first annual increase since 2022. With both oil and natural gas prices having soared amid supply shortfalls, average energy prices are forecast to increase by 24 percent in 2026. The Brent oil price is expected to average 86 dollar per barrel, an upward revision of 26 dollar since January. However, the supply shocks brought about by the war are broad-based. Prices for fertilizers are projected to soar, and prices of food commodities and base metals are also projected to increase. Average base metals and precious metals prices are both projected to reach all-time highs. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted firmly toward higher prices. If disruptions in the Middle East prove more protracted or severe than assumed, the Brent oil price in 2026 could average 95 dollar to 115 dollar per barrel. The Special Focus in this edition quantifies the effects of geopolitical oil supply shocks, as distinct from other sources of oil supply variation. It estimates that during times of surging geopolitical risk, a 1 percent reduction in oil production generates a peak oil price increase, on average, of more than 11 percent, nearly twice the increase reported in previous studies for oil supply shocks in general.

This 2026 Economic Update for Chad contains two chapters. The first chapter presents the economic and poverty developments observed in the country in 2025 as well as the outlook from 2026 to 2028. The second chapter offers a deep dive on private sector development, with a particular focus on MSMEs and Job Creation. It also offers recommendations for unlocking the sector’s full potential.

Human capital- people’s knowledge, skills, and health- drives productivity and growth. The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures the human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over their working life, extending the original HCI by incorporating tertiary education and work experience. This brief summarizes Uganda’s HCI+ score and its performance in building human capital.

Human capital - people’s knowledge, skills, and health - drives productivity and growth. The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures the human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over their working life, extending the original HCI by incorporating tertiary education and work experience. This brief summarizes Romania's HCI+ score and its performance in building human capital.

Human capital - people’s knowledge, skills, and health - drives productivity and growth. The Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) measures the human capital a child born today can expect to accumulate over their working life, extending the original HCI by incorporating tertiary education and work experience. This brief summarizes Chad’s HCI+ score and its performance in building human capital.