Viet Nam Macro Monitoring

Overview & Synopsis

2026 opened with the successful conclusion of Viet Nam’s 14th Party Congress, which reaffirmed ambitions to become a high-income country by 2045 and set an ambitious 2026-2030 reform agenda centered on supporting higher growth while safeguarding macro stability. Early-year activity was strong, with January industrial production rising in line with trade momentum. Household consumption remained cautious amid higher living costs, particularly for housing and other non-discretionary services. Core inflation stayed relatively elevated despite softer headline CPI. FX pressures eased amid broad US$ weakness. The SBVs 2026 credit growth target (15 percent) aims to rebuild banking sector liquidity buffers and steer credit toward safer, productive uses. Capital markets remained buoyant, led by strong domestic equity participation and improving confidence around the FTSE Russell upgrade path, while the corporate bond market continued to normalize - dominated by bank and real-estate issuance - supporting longer-term funding.