Setting Targets : Plastic Substitution Tradeoff Estimator

Overview & Synopsis

This document presents the Plastic Substitution Tradeoff Estimator, a country-level tool that helps policymakers assess the environmental and economic consequences of replacing single-use plastics with alternative materials. Its purpose is to support evidence-based target setting and policy design to reduce plastic pollution while minimizing unintended effects. The Estimator compares 10 common plastic products with up to four substitutes each, using a function-based approach grounded in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and External Cost Analysis (ECA) from upstream production through downstream waste management. It monetizes environmental impacts such as global warming potential and incorporates other external costs reported in the literature, including losses in tourism income. A complementary qualitative module rates effects on marine ecosystems and urban livability. Pilots in Bangladesh, Mozambique, Nigeria, St. Lucia, and Vietnam demonstrate how outputs, monetized valuations and qualitative assessments, clarify when alternatives do or do not outperform plastics under country-specific conditions. The tool enables governments to weigh tradeoffs transparently and to tailor instruments, such as bans, standards, or incentives, to local contexts, improving the effectiveness and efficiency of plastic pollution mitigation strategies.