Turkmenistan - Economic Report

Overview & Synopsis

Turkmenistan is a land-locked, upper middle-income country, characterized by a rigid statist economic model, and driven by natural gas exports. Turkmenistan went through a period of adjustment as it first met with lower oil and gas prices and was further affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with lower hydrocarbon demand, globally. In 2021–23, hydrocarbon global demand and prices rebounded, boosting economic activity and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In February 2022, Turkmenistan adopted its long-term 2022-2052 National Program of Socio-Economic Development and the medium-term 2022-2028 Presidential Program to implement the longer-term program. The outlook is positive for 2025, with overall commodity prices expected to remain well above pre-pandemic levels. The boost to hydrocarbon production will help to increase Turkmenistan’s trade surplus further and maintain current account surpluses in 2024 and 2025. Faster expansion of gas production and exports, as well as strong revenue from energy and non-energy products, are projected to maintain the state budget balance in small surplus in 2024 and 2025. The outlook is subject to significant uncertainty and risks. Turkmenistan needs to navigate a series of challenges as it aims to progress to sustainability and reach high-income status.