Economics & Development

Most low-income countries lack high-frequency firm-level data to monitor the effect of economic shocks in real time. We examine whether administrative tax data can help fill this gap, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. In spring 2020, we used the full population of corporate tax returns for 2019 in six developing countries to predict the effect of COVID-induced shocks on formal firms’ activity. Comparing the predictions to the realized 2020 data, we find that firms were more resilient than predicted: the share of unprofitable firms increased by only 7 percentage points, while aggregate profits and taxes paid remained stable. The simulations failed to anticipate that labor and capital inputs would flexibly adjust and that large firms would be very resilient. Complementing our simulations with higher-frequency VAT data would have markedly improved predictions.

The World Bank is committed to supporting countries in efforts to advance inclusion that benefits all, including sexual and gender minorities. In recent years, many countries have made advances in this area through the adoption of laws and policies that promote inclusion and protect against discrimination based on sexual orientation, gender identity and expression, and sex characteristics (SOGIESC). Around the globe, however, sexual and gender minorities continue to face daunting challenges to inclusion, and these challenges are grounded in stigma, discrimination, and, too often, violence. This report, a significant expansion on the first EQOSOGI report that assessed 16 countries, explores areas such as education, employment, and access to services, with the aim of informing legislative reform and supporting research that leads to positive development outcomes. The findings underscore the importance of inclusive policies and laws for a country’s economic development, highlight the correlation between SOGIESC inclusion and economic growth, and provide insights into the legal frameworks that govern the lived experience of sexual and gender minorities. The report acknowledges that, despite progress, no country has fully achieved equality under the law for sexual and gender minorities. But the report also shines a light on good practices among the sample countries, which we do with the intent of advancing to the broader goal of inclusive and sustainable economic development.

This Economic Policy Forum explored the fiscal implications of climate change and the role of fiscal sustainability analysis in managing climate-related risks. Presentations examined the economic and budgetary impacts of climate change, empirical evidence on the fiscal consequences of natural disasters, and methodologies for integrating climate considerations into fiscal sustainability assessments. Country case studies from Argentina and Indonesia highlighted practical approaches to identifying, assessing, and mitigating fiscal risks associated with climate change. The forum concluded with a discussion on lessons learned, policy responses, and strategies for strengthening fiscal resilience in the face of growing climate-related challenges.

This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the performance of the World Bank Group’s support to Indonesia between FY 2013 and FY23. The evaluation will focus on the Bank Group’s contribution to help Indonesia tackle key long-term development challenges and position the country toward its goal of reaching high-income status by 2045. The evaluation period spans three country strategies—the FY13–15 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), the FY16–20 Country Partnership Framework (CPF), and the FY21–25 CPF. The evaluation seeks to identify lessons to inform future Bank Group engagement in support of Indonesia’s development priorities, including the next CPF, which is due to be completed in the fall of 2025. The CPE will assess the relevance and effectiveness of Bank Group support to Indonesia by examining how the Bank Group designed and adjusted its support in four critical development areas: promoting adequacy and efficiency of public spending, ensuring resilient urbanization management, lifting human capital to reduce inequality, and deepening of the financial sector. These themes are particularly important for Indonesia in its efforts to achieve, through sustainable and inclusive growth, its long-term development goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045.