Disasters, politics, and the economy : the interplay between tropical cyclones, political opinions, and economic growth

Overview & Synopsis

This dissertation aims at closing important research gaps in the study of (i) the effect of tropical cyclones on subnational economic growth; (ii) the linkage between tropical cyclones and political polarization; and (iii) the relation between climate change news and individuals' opinions. First, tropical cyclones cause substantial damage and harm, and the proportion of the most intense storms is projected to increase under future warming. Previous analyses are limited to specific regions, country levels, or single tropical cyclone hazards, mainly wind speed. Chapter 1 assesses the compound effect of all three main tropical cyclone hazards—wind speed, storm surge, and rainfall—on subnational macroeconomic growth globally. To this end, we combine spatially modeled tropical cyclone intensity data with economic growth data from 1,642 subnational regions for the years 1980-2020. We find that while wind speed induces the largest macroeconomic losses, accounting for the other two hazards is important. Storm surges cause further losses, whereas the effect of rainfall is beneficial up to a certain rainfall amount. Second, previous literature has examined the impact of extreme events on political preferences, highlighting a positive shift towards environmental and Democratic positions. However, it has not addressed the potential polarizing effect on public opinion. Chapter 2 investigates the relation between tropical cyclones and political polarization in the United States, offering new insights into this topic. To do so, we use the Cooperative Election Study database for political ideology and scientific maximum wind-speed modeled data for measuring storm damage over the 2010-2018 period. We find that extremely damaging tropical cyclones are associated with increased political polarization within the population. Specifically, Democrats exhibit an increase in liberal opinions, while Republicans shift towards more conservative views. Third, existing literature has shown that climate change news positively influences the acceptance of climate change. However, there has been no examination of whether climate change news contributes to greater stability in opinions, taking into account both acceptance and denial of climate change. Chapter 3 addresses an unexplored avenue by focusing on whether climate change news reinforces adherence to the individual's opinion and discards opposing perspectives about the existence of climate change among U.S. residents. I use individuals' historical survey data on over 9,000 individuals collected during the even years of the 2010-2014 period and find that greater exposure to climate news increases the probability of having (i) stable climate change acceptance among Democrats; (ii) stable climate change denial among Republicans; (iii) unstable climate change denial among Democrats; and (iv) unstable climate change acceptance among Republicans.