The impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on world stock market returns

Overview & Synopsis

As a topical issue, this paper studies the responses of world stock market indices to the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. Using daily stock market returns in a sample of 94 countries and covers the period from 22 January 2022 to 24 March 2022, we consistently document a negative relationship between the Ukraine-Russia war and world stock market returns. Our results point to a larger impact at the onset of war, especially during the first two weeks after the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The reaction of global stock markets was weaker in the weeks that followed. Furthermore, we find that these effects were most pronounced for countries bordering Ukraine and Russia, as well as for those UN member states that demanded an end to the Russian offensive in Ukraine. Overall, we provide the first empirical evidence of the effect of the Ukraine-Russia war on world stock market returns.