Stronger artificial intelligence breakthroughs hasten their own exhaustion

Overview & Synopsis

Progress in artificial intelligence is widely assumed to scale with effort: more researchers, papers and investment should accelerate discovery. Theories of technological growth instead locate the difficulty of discovery in the space of ideas. Here we show that neither scale nor space is enough: breakthroughs depend on diverse attention, which collective concentration can deplete. Across 36 years of computer science, we analyze 7.2 million papers, 73,089 peer reviews and 3.7 million researchers and their topic shifts. The field expanded while its attention narrowed sharply after the Transformer. Over half of topic-shifting researchers moved into AI, especially mid-career ones, and reviewer confidence fell by a full point on a 5-point scale. Each successive breakthrough, from AlexNet to large language models, raised the field's carrying capacity for ideas but was followed by steeper exhaustion of those ideas. Bigger breakthroughs capture attention more completely, depleting the diversity their successors may draw upon. Structural biology shows the same cycle after cryo-EM and AlphaFold. Simulations show how well-intentioned and widely used policies such as reciprocal reviewing empower prolific authors and further narrow what the field accepts. We call for institutions that protect diverse attention in artificial intelligence rather than reward concentration on the winning paradigm.